《独立开发者的商业指南·资本与退出》13.1 三卷指标矩阵

// file: src/capital/metric-matrix.ts
// tier: L1
// verify: node --test test/capital/metric-matrix.test.ts

export type Layer = "cash" | "risk" | "capital";
export type Unit = "cents" | "bps" | "count" | "ratio";

export interface Metric {
  id: string;
  layer: Layer;
  label: string;
  unit: Unit;
}

export interface CaseFigures {
  name: string;
  values: Record<string, number | null>;
}

export interface MatrixRow extends Metric {
  values: Record<string, number | null>;
  gaps: string[];
}

export interface MatrixResult {
  rows: MatrixRow[];
  layerCounts: Record<Layer, number>;
  gapCount: number;
}

export const METRICS: Metric[] = [
  { id: "revenue", layer: "cash", label: "年收入", unit: "cents" },
  { id: "arr", layer: "cash", label: "年度经常性收入", unit: "cents" },
  { id: "sde", layer: "cash", label: "卖方可支配收益", unit: "cents" },
  { id: "sdeMargin", layer: "cash", label: "SDE 利润率", unit: "bps" },
  { id: "customers", layer: "cash", label: "付费客户数", unit: "count" },
  { id: "monthlyChurn", layer: "cash", label: "月流失率", unit: "bps" },
  { id: "topConcentration", layer: "risk", label: "前 3 或前 5 家集中度", unit: "bps" },
  { id: "recurringShare", layer: "risk", label: "经常性收入占比", unit: "bps" },
  { id: "platformDependence", layer: "risk", label: "单一平台或渠道依赖", unit: "bps" },
  { id: "receivables", layer: "risk", label: "应收余额", unit: "cents" },
  { id: "overdueRate", layer: "risk", label: "应收逾期率", unit: "bps" },
  { id: "badDebtRate", layer: "risk", label: "坏账准备率", unit: "bps" },
  { id: "valuation", layer: "capital", label: "基准估值", unit: "cents" },
  { id: "multiple", layer: "capital", label: "基准倍数", unit: "bps" },
  { id: "afterTax", layer: "capital", label: "税后所得", unit: "cents" },
  { id: "shutdownNet", layer: "capital", label: "关停净值", unit: "cents" },
];

export const CASES: CaseFigures[] = [
  {
    name: "LedgerLite",
    values: {
      revenue: 24_024_000,
      arr: 24_024_000,
      sde: 13_024_000,
      sdeMargin: 5_421,
      customers: 260,
      monthlyChurn: 150,
      topConcentration: 3_100,
      recurringShare: 10_000,
      platformDependence: 0,
      receivables: 1_200_000,
      overdueRate: 600,
      badDebtRate: 100,
      valuation: 76_876_800,
      multiple: 320,
      afterTax: 57_657_600,
      shutdownNet: null,
    },
  },
  {
    name: "Tidecast",
    values: {
      revenue: 19_190_400,
      arr: 0,
      sde: 12_117_100,
      sdeMargin: 6_314,
      customers: 9_600,
      monthlyChurn: null,
      topConcentration: 0,
      recurringShare: 0,
      platformDependence: 8_000,
      receivables: 0,
      overdueRate: 0,
      badDebtRate: 0,
      valuation: 24_870_800,
      multiple: 180,
      afterTax: 18_653_100,
      shutdownNet: null,
    },
  },
  {
    name: "Nord Studio",
    values: {
      revenue: 15_432_000,
      arr: 0,
      sde: 3_432_000,
      sdeMargin: 2_224,
      customers: 90,
      monthlyChurn: null,
      topConcentration: 4_800,
      recurringShare: 2_730,
      platformDependence: 0,
      receivables: 1_126_400,
      overdueRate: 800,
      badDebtRate: 200,
      valuation: 15_444_000,
      multiple: 450,
      afterTax: 11_583_000,
      shutdownNet: -1_060_080,
    },
  },
];

export function derivedSdeMargin(revenue: number, sde: number): number {
  if (revenue <= 0) throw new Error("revenue must be positive");
  return Math.round((sde * 10_000) / revenue);
}

export function buildMatrix(cases: CaseFigures[] = CASES): MatrixResult {
  if (cases.length === 0) throw new Error("at least one case is required");
  const rows: MatrixRow[] = METRICS.map((metric) => {
    const values: Record<string, number | null> = {};
    const gaps: string[] = [];
    for (const item of cases) {
      const value = item.values[metric.id] ?? null;
      values[item.name] = value;
      if (value === null) gaps.push(item.name);
    }
    return { ...metric, values, gaps };
  });
  const layerCounts: Record<Layer, number> = {
    cash: METRICS.filter((m) => m.layer === "cash").length,
    risk: METRICS.filter((m) => m.layer === "risk").length,
    capital: METRICS.filter((m) => m.layer === "capital").length,
  };
  const gapCount = rows.reduce((sum, row) => sum + row.gaps.length, 0);
  return { rows, layerCounts, gapCount };
}

export function comparableCases(result: MatrixResult): string[] {
  const names = new Set<string>();
  for (const row of result.rows) {
    for (const [name, value] of Object.entries(row.values)) {
      if (value !== null) names.add(name);
    }
  }
  return [...names].sort();
}

export function gapSummary(result: MatrixResult): Record<string, string[]> {
  const summary: Record<string, string[]> = {};
  for (const row of result.rows) {
    for (const name of row.gaps) {
      if (!summary[name]) summary[name] = [];
      summary[name].push(row.id);
    }
  }
  return summary;
}