1.3 平台选择与组合策略

{
  "version": 1,
  "game": "merge-island",
  "observedAt": "2026-10",
  "note": "平台选择与组合策略参数。dimensions=适配度维度与权重（整数，权重是本模型自设的输入，不是平台数据）；platforms[].scores=各维度原始分（0-100，建模假设）；netFen=该平台满配下的月净额（分，建模假设）；manDays=接入与适配的工程人天（建模假设）；budgetManDays=总接入预算。全部为「公开可观察机制」口径的建模假设，观察时点 2026-10；真实流量、真实分成与真实接入成本需真实业务环境，命令行不可复现（X）。全整数，无浮点。",
  "budgetManDays": 40,
  "dimensions": [
    { "id": "share", "name": "分成友好度", "weight": 3 },
    { "id": "reach", "name": "流量规模", "weight": 3 },
    { "id": "integration", "name": "接入成本低", "weight": 2 },
    { "id": "review", "name": "审核宽松", "weight": 2 },
    { "id": "iap", "name": "内购支持", "weight": 1 }
  ],
  "platforms": [
    { "id": "poki", "name": "Poki", "netFen": 3500000, "manDays": 6, "scores": { "share": 70, "reach": 60, "integration": 80, "review": 70, "iap": 10 } },
    { "id": "crazygames", "name": "CrazyGames", "netFen": 2500000, "manDays": 5, "scores": { "share": 50, "reach": 55, "integration": 85, "review": 70, "iap": 10 } },
    { "id": "gamedist", "name": "GameDistribution", "netFen": 3500000, "manDays": 4, "scores": { "share": 70, "reach": 50, "integration": 90, "review": 75, "iap": 10 } },
    { "id": "yt_playables", "name": "YouTube Playables", "netFen": 2750000, "manDays": 9, "scores": { "share": 55, "reach": 80, "integration": 55, "review": 45, "iap": 10 } },
    { "id": "fb_instant", "name": "Facebook Instant Games", "netFen": 4900000, "manDays": 12, "scores": { "share": 70, "reach": 75, "integration": 50, "review": 55, "iap": 70 } },
    { "id": "appstore", "name": "App Store", "netFen": 4900000, "manDays": 20, "scores": { "share": 70, "reach": 90, "integration": 35, "review": 30, "iap": 90 } },
    { "id": "gplay", "name": "Google Play", "netFen": 4900000, "manDays": 18, "scores": { "share": 70, "reach": 95, "integration": 40, "review": 35, "iap": 90 } },
    { "id": "steam", "name": "Steam（PC 对照）", "netFen": 4900000, "manDays": 25, "scores": { "share": 70, "reach": 45, "integration": 30, "review": 40, "iap": 85 } }
  ]
}

#!/usr/bin/env python3
# file: sim/g01_selection.py
# tier: S
# verify: /opt/homebrew/bin/python3 sim/g01_selection.py --config config/ --out out/
"""平台选择与组合策略：读 config/g01_selection.json，按加权适配度给每个平台打分，再用
「收益效率 = 适配加权净额 / 人天」做贪心装箱，在总人天预算内最大化组合净额。全整数。

    weightSum   = Σ dimension.weight
    score       = Σ (weight * platform.scores[dim]) // weightSum       （0-100 适配度）
    priorityFen = netFen * score // 100                                （适配加权后的月净额）
    efficiency  = priorityFen // manDays                               （每工程人天换来的净额）

贪心：按 efficiency 降序取平台，装得下就放，装不下就跳过继续试更小的平台，直到遍历完。
口径：维度权重是本模型自设输入，平台原始分、净额、人天均为建模假设，观察时点 2026-10；
真实流量、真实分成与真实接入成本需真实业务环境，命令行不可复现（X）。
产出 out/g01_selection.json + .csv + .svg。
"""
from __future__ import annotations

import argparse
import csv
import json
import os
import xml.etree.ElementTree as ET


def load(cfg_dir: str) -> dict:
    with open(os.path.join(cfg_dir, "g01_selection.json"), encoding="utf-8") as f:
        return json.load(f)


def evaluate(p: dict, dims: list[dict]) -> dict:
    weight_sum = sum(d["weight"] for d in dims)
    score = sum(d["weight"] * p["scores"][d["id"]] for d in dims) // weight_sum if weight_sum else 0
    priority = p["netFen"] * score // 100
    return dict(p, score=score, priorityFen=priority,
                efficiency=priority // p["manDays"] if p["manDays"] else 0)


def select(rows: list[dict], budget_man_days: int) -> dict:
    """按 efficiency 降序贪心装箱；跳过装不下的，继续试更小的平台。"""
    chosen, used = [], 0
    for r in sorted(rows, key=lambda r: (-r["efficiency"], r["id"])):
        if used + r["manDays"] <= budget_man_days:
            chosen.append(r)
            used += r["manDays"]
    return {"ids": [r["id"] for r in chosen], "count": len(chosen), "manDays": used,
            "netFen": sum(r["netFen"] for r in chosen),
            "priorityFen": sum(r["priorityFen"] for r in chosen),
            "efficiency": sum(r["netFen"] for r in chosen) // used if used else 0,
            "avgScore": sum(r["score"] for r in chosen) // len(chosen) if chosen else 0}


def draw_svg(path: str, rows: list[dict], chosen_ids: set) -> int:
    """每个平台一条横条：适配加权净额（分），入选组合标绿。"""
    W, H, PAD, ROW = 800, 70 + 40 * len(rows), 230, 40
    svg = ET.Element("svg", {"xmlns": "http://www.w3.org/2000/svg", "width": str(W),
                             "height": str(H), "viewBox": f"0 0 {W} {H}"})
    ET.SubElement(svg, "rect", {"width": str(W), "height": str(H), "fill": "#ffffff"})
    ET.SubElement(svg, "text", {"x": "16", "y": "28", "font-size": "15",
                                "fill": "#111827"}).text = "各平台适配加权净额（分）：绿=入选组合"
    span, hi = W - PAD - 170, max([r["priorityFen"] for r in rows] + [1])
    for i, r in enumerate(rows):
        y = 52 + i * ROW
        ET.SubElement(svg, "text", {"x": "16", "y": str(y + 18), "font-size": "12",
                                    "fill": "#374151"}).text = r["name"]
        w = span * r["priorityFen"] // hi
        ET.SubElement(svg, "rect", {"x": str(PAD), "y": str(y + 4), "width": str(w),
                                    "height": "18", "rx": "3",
                                    "fill": "#16a34a" if r["id"] in chosen_ids else "#94a3b8"})
        ET.SubElement(svg, "text", {"x": str(PAD + w + 6), "y": str(y + 18), "font-size": "11",
                                    "fill": "#6b7280"}).text = (
            f'分 {r["score"]} · 效率 {r["efficiency"]} · {r["manDays"]}人天')
    os.makedirs(os.path.dirname(path), exist_ok=True)
    ET.ElementTree(svg).write(path, encoding="utf-8", xml_declaration=True)
    return len(ET.tostring(svg))


def main() -> int:
    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
    ap.add_argument("--config", default="config/")
    ap.add_argument("--out", default="out/")
    args = ap.parse_args()
    cfg = load(args.config)
    dims = cfg["dimensions"]
    rows = [evaluate(p, dims) for p in cfg["platforms"]]
    port = select(rows, cfg["budgetManDays"])
    chosen_ids = set(port["ids"])
    digest = ",".join(f'{r["id"]}:{r["score"]}:{r["efficiency"]}' for r in rows) + ";" + "|".join(port["ids"])

    os.makedirs(args.out, exist_ok=True)
    svg_bytes = draw_svg(os.path.join(args.out, "g01_selection.svg"), rows, chosen_ids)
    report = {"version": cfg["version"], "game": cfg["game"], "observedAt": cfg["observedAt"],
              "budgetManDays": cfg["budgetManDays"], "weightSum": sum(d["weight"] for d in dims),
              "platformCount": len(rows), "platforms": rows, "portfolio": port, "digest": digest,
              "svg": os.path.join(args.out, "g01_selection.svg"), "svgBytes": svg_bytes}
    with open(os.path.join(args.out, "g01_selection.json"), "w", encoding="utf-8") as f:
        json.dump(report, f, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2)
    with open(os.path.join(args.out, "g01_selection.csv"), "w", encoding="utf-8", newline="") as f:
        w = csv.writer(f)
        w.writerow(["id", "name", "score", "priorityFen", "efficiency", "netFen", "manDays", "selected"])
        for r in rows:
            w.writerow([r["id"], r["name"], r["score"], r["priorityFen"], r["efficiency"],
                        r["netFen"], r["manDays"], 1 if r["id"] in chosen_ids else 0])

    print(json.dumps({
        "budgetManDays": cfg["budgetManDays"],
        "platforms": [{"id": r["id"], "score": r["score"], "efficiency": r["efficiency"],
                       "manDays": r["manDays"]} for r in rows],
        "portfolio": port, "digest": digest}, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2))
    return 0


if __name__ == "__main__":
    raise SystemExit(main())

#!/usr/bin/env python3
# file: sim/g01_selection_bench.py
# tier: B
# verify: /opt/homebrew/bin/python3 sim/g01_selection_bench.py --config config/ --out out/
"""B 基准：平台组合选择对「维度权重」与「人天预算」的稳健性。

选择结论依赖 dimensions.weight——而权重是**人的判断**，不是客观常数。所以要问：
「如果我把某个维度权重上调 / 下调 20%，或者预算多给 / 少给 20%，入选组合会翻盘吗？」
做法：逐维度权重 ×0.8 / ×1.2，以及预算 ×0.8 / ×1.2，各自重跑「打分 → 效率 → 贪心装箱」，
逐平台比较是否入选，记录进出组合的平台。
软告警：任一扰动使组合成员发生变化即计入翻转（说明该选择对参数敏感）。退出码恒为 0。
全整数，无浮点。
"""
from __future__ import annotations

import argparse
import json
import os

from g01_selection import evaluate, load, select

PERTURB_PCT = 20


def perturbed_weights(dims: list[dict], key: str, pct: int) -> list[dict]:
    out = []
    for d in dims:
        w = d["weight"] * (100 + pct) // 100 if d["id"] == key else d["weight"]
        out.append({**d, "weight": max(w, 1)})
    return out


def main() -> int:
    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
    ap.add_argument("--config", default="config/")
    ap.add_argument("--out", default="out/")
    args = ap.parse_args()

    cfg = load(args.config)
    dims = cfg["dimensions"]
    base_port = select([evaluate(p, dims) for p in cfg["platforms"]], cfg["budgetManDays"])
    base_set = set(base_port["ids"])

    cases, flips = [], []
    for d in dims:
        for pct in (-PERTURB_PCT, PERTURB_PCT):
            dims2 = perturbed_weights(dims, d["id"], pct)
            port = select([evaluate(p, dims2) for p in cfg["platforms"]], cfg["budgetManDays"])
            entered = sorted(set(port["ids"]) - base_set)
            left = sorted(base_set - set(port["ids"]))
            cases.append({"type": "weight", "key": d["id"], "pct": pct,
                          "newWeight": next(x["weight"] for x in dims2 if x["id"] == d["id"]),
                          "portfolio": port["ids"], "entered": entered, "left": left})
            if entered or left:
                flips.append({"type": "weight", "key": d["id"], "pct": pct,
                              "entered": entered, "left": left})
    for pct in (-PERTURB_PCT, PERTURB_PCT):
        budget = cfg["budgetManDays"] * (100 + pct) // 100
        port = select([evaluate(p, dims) for p in cfg["platforms"]], budget)
        entered = sorted(set(port["ids"]) - base_set)
        left = sorted(base_set - set(port["ids"]))
        cases.append({"type": "budget", "key": "budgetManDays", "pct": pct, "newValue": budget,
                      "portfolio": port["ids"], "entered": entered, "left": left})
        if entered or left:
            flips.append({"type": "budget", "key": "budgetManDays", "pct": pct,
                          "entered": entered, "left": left})

    os.makedirs(args.out, exist_ok=True)
    rep = {"version": cfg["version"], "source": "sim/g01_selection_bench.py", "perturbPct": PERTURB_PCT,
           "baseBudgetManDays": cfg["budgetManDays"], "basePortfolio": base_port["ids"],
           "cases": cases, "flipCount": len(flips), "flips": flips,
           "verdict": "PASS(soft)" if not flips else f"WARN(soft) {len(flips)} 条翻转"}
    with open(os.path.join(args.out, "g01_selection_bench.json"), "w", encoding="utf-8") as f:
        json.dump(rep, f, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2)
    print(json.dumps({"basePortfolio": base_port["ids"], "flipCount": len(flips),
                      "flips": flips, "verdict": rep["verdict"]}, ensure_ascii=False, indent=2))
    return 0  # B 层软告警：恒返回 0


if __name__ == "__main__":
    raise SystemExit(main())